The United States as a debtor nation

The United States as a debtor nation / William R. Cline.

The United States has once again entered into a period of large external imbalances. This study examines whether the large and growing current account deficit is a problem, and if so, how problem can be solved.

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Cline, William R.
Corporate Authors: Center for Global Development, Institute for International Economics (U.S.)
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, DC : Institute for International Economics : Center for Global Development, 2005.
Subjects:
Debts, External > United States.
Balance of trade > United States.
Investments, American.
BUSINESS & ECONOMICS > Public Finance.
Balance of trade
Commercial policy
Debts, External
Investments, American
Handelsbilanz > Außenhandel
Debt Management
Internationale leningen.
Buitenlandse schulden.
Handelsbalans.
United States > Commercial policy.
United States
USA
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Table of Contents:
  • 1. The international debt cycle and the United States as an external debtor
  • The debt cycle
  • Measuring the net international investment position
  • The debt cycle in practice
  • The global balance sheet discrepancy
  • Debt cycle status and growth performance
  • Appendix 1A. Estimating the net international investment position
  • 2. Valuation effects, asymmetric returns, and economic net foreign assets
  • US valuation effects
  • US asymmetric capital returns
  • Capital services and economic versus accounting net foreign assets
  • Alternative measures : cash flow versus debt burden
  • 3. Projecting the US current account deficit and net foreign assets
  • A simple projection model
  • Calibration and data
  • Identifying the exchange rate lag
  • Backcast performance
  • Baseline projections
  • Comparison with other projections
  • Adjustment scenarios
  • Impact parameters
  • 4. US fiscal imbalance and the external deficit
  • Understanding the linkages
  • The decline in personal saving
  • Fiscal outlook for 2005-10
  • Long-term fiscal problem
  • General equilibrium framework
  • Toward fiscal and external adjustment
  • Appendix 4A. A simple general equilibrium model relating the trade and fiscal balances
  • 5. Sustainability of the US current account deficit and the risk of crisis
  • US share in global portfolios
  • Debt ratios and critical thresholds
  • Hard landing, long-term burden, and protectionist pressures
  • The evolving crisis debate
  • Appendix 5A. Key features of leading recent analyses
  • 6. Impact of the US external imbalance on the rest of the world
  • Impact on global demand
  • Impact on interest rates
  • Emerging-market capital supply and current account performance
  • Developing-country reserves : burden or bonanza?
  • East Asian exchange rate rigidity
  • Achieving global adjustment
  • Appendix 6A. Optimal exchange rate realignment
  • Appendix 6B. Recent alternative profiles proposed for global adjustment
  • 7. Principal findings and policy implications
  • The international debt cycle
  • Valuation effects, asymmetric returns, and economic net foreign assets
  • Forecasting the US current account deficit and net foreign assets
  • The role of fiscal adjustment
  • Sustainability and risks of the current account deficit
  • Global impact of US external imbalance
  • Policy implication.

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