Risk analysis : assessing uncertainties beyond expected values and probabilities

Risk analysis : assessing uncertainties beyond expected values and probabilities / Terje Aven.

Everyday we face decisions that carry an element of risk and uncertainty. The ability to analyze, predict, and prepare for the level of risk entailed by these decisions is, therefore, one of the most constant and vital skills needed for analysts, scientists and managers. Risk analysis can be defined...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Aven, Terje
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Chichester, England ; Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, ©2008.
Subjects:
Risk assessment > Mathematical models.
Risk > Mathematical models.
Uncertainty > Mathematical models.
BUSINESS & ECONOMICS > Economics > Microeconomics.
Risk assessment > Mathematical models
Risk > Mathematical models
Uncertainty > Mathematical models
Entscheidung bei Risiko
Entscheidung bei Unsicherheit
Risikomanagement
Online Access:Click for online access
Table of Contents:
  • Part I Theory and methods1 What is a risk analysis?1.1 Why risk analysis?1.2 Risk management1.3 Examples: decision situations2 What is risk?2.1 Vulnerability2.2 How to describe risk quantitatively3 The risk analysis process: planning3.1 Problem definition3.2 Selection of analysis method4 The risk analysis process: risk assessment4.1 Identification of initiating events4.2 Cause analysis4.3 Consequence analysis4.4 Probabilities and uncertainties4.5 Risk picture: risk presentation5 The risk analysis process: risk treatment5.1 Comparisons of alternatives5.2 Management review and judgement6 Risk analysis methods6.1 Coarse risk analysis6.2 Job safety analysis6.3 Failure modes and effects analysis6.4 Hazard and operability Studies6.5 SWIFT6.6 Fault tree analysis6.7 Event tree analysis6.8 Bayesian networks6.9 Monte Carlo simulationPart II Examples of applications7 Safety measures for a road tunnel7.1 Planning7.2 Risk assessment7.3 Risk treatment8 Risk analysis process for an offshore installation8.1 Planning8.2 Risk analysis8.3 Risk picture and comparison of alternatives8.4 Management review and judgement9 Production assurance9.1 Planning9.2 Risk analysis9.3 Risk picture and comparison of alternatives9.4 Management review and judgement: decision10 Risk analysis process for a cash depot10.1 Planning10.2 Risk analysis10.3 Risk picture10.4 Risk-reducing measures10.5 Management review and judgment: decision10.6 Discussion11 Risk analysis process for municipalities11.1 Planning11.2 Risk assessment11.3 Risk treatment12 Risk analysis process for the entire enterprise12.1 Planning12.2 Risk analysis12.3 Overall risk picture12.4 Risk treatment13 Discussion13.1 Risk analysis as a decision support tool13.2 Risk is more than the calculated probabilities and expected values13.3 Risk analysis has both strengths and weaknesses13.4 Reflection on approaches, methods and results13.5 Limitations of the causal chain approach13.6 Risk perspectives13.7 Scientific basis13.8 The implications of the limitations of risk assessment13.9 Critical systems and activities13.10 ConclusionsA Probability calculus and statisticsA. 1 The meaning of a probabilityA. 2 Probability calculusA. 3 Probability distributions: expected valueA. 3.1 Binomial distributionA. 4 Statistics (Bayesian statistics)B Introduction to reliability analysisB. 1 Reliability of systems composed of componentsB. 2 Production systemB. 3 Safety systemC Approach for selecting risk analysis methodsC. 1 Expected consequencesC. 2 Uncertainty factorsC. 3 Frame conditionsC. 4 Selection of a specific methodD TerminologyD. 1 Risk management: relationships between key termsBibliographyIndex.

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