Description
| Summary: | The World Economic Outlook (WEO) is a key source of forecasts of global economic conditions. It is therefore important to review the performance of these forecasts against both actual outcomes and alternative forecasts. This paper conducts a series of statistical tests to evaluate the quality of the WEO forecasts for a very large cross section of countries, with particular emphasis on the recent recession and recovery. It assesses whether forecasts were unbiased and informationally efficient, and characterizes the process whereby WEO forecasts get revised as the time to the point of the forecast draws closer. Finally, the paper assess whether forecasts can be improved by combining WEO forecasts with the Consensus forecasts. The results suggest that the performance of the WEO forecasts is similar to that of the Consensus forecasts. While WEO forecasts for many variables in many countries meet basic quality standards in some, if not all, dimensions, the paper raises a number of concerns with current forecasting performance.
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| Physical Description: | 1 online resource (106 pages) : illustrations |
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| Format: | Master and use copy. Digital master created according to Benchmark for Faithful Digital Reproductions of Monographs and Serials, Version 1. Digital Library Federation, December 2002. |
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| Bibliography: | Includes bibliographical references. |
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| ISBN: | 1283514869
9781283514866
9781451908558
1451908555
1462394213
9781462394210
1452718873
9781452718873
9786613827319
6613827312 |
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| ISSN: | 2227-8885 ; |
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| Language: | English. |
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| Reproduction Note: | Electronic reproduction. |
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| Source of Description, Etc. Note: | Print version record. |
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| Action Note: | digitized |
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