An evaluation of the world economic outlook forecasts

An evaluation of the world economic outlook forecasts / Allan Timmermann.

The World Economic Outlook (WEO) is a key source of forecasts of global economic conditions. It is therefore important to review the performance of these forecasts against both actual outcomes and alternative forecasts. This paper conducts a series of statistical tests to evaluate the quality of the...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Timmermann, Allan (Author)
Corporate Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Department
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, Research Dept., 2006.
Series:IMF working paper ; WP/06/59.
Subjects:
Economic development.
Economic forecasting > Evaluation.
International economic relations.
economic development.
Economic development
Economic forecasting > Evaluation
International economic relations
Online Access:Click for online access
Table of Contents:
  • Contents
  • I. INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY
  • II. DESCRIPTION OF WEO DATASET
  • III. PROPERTIES OF OPTIMAL FORECASTS
  • IV. EMPIRICAL RESULTS
  • V. ANALYSIS OF STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE
  • VI. CAN THE WEO FORECAST ERRORS BE PREDICTED?
  • VII. DIRECTIONAL ACCURACY
  • VIII. REVISIONS FROM BOARD TO PUBLISHED FORECASTS
  • IX. RECENT PERFORMANCE OF WEO FORECASTS
  • X. LONG-RUN FORECASTING PERFORMANCE FOR G-7 ECONOMIES
  • XI. COMPARISON OF WEO AND CONSENSUS FORECASTS
  • XII. FORECAST COMBINATIONS
  • XIII. RECOMMENDATIONS
  • XIV. CONCLUSION
  • References

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