The next supreme leader : succession in the Islamic Republic of Iran

The next supreme leader : succession in the Islamic Republic of Iran / Alireza Nader, David E. Thaler, S.R. Bohandy.

As the commander in chief and highest political authority in Iran, the current Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has played a critical role in the direction of the Islamic Republic of Iran. This has never been more true than during the tumultuous 2009 presidential elections, the outcome of whi...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Nader, Alireza
Corporate Authors: United States. Department of Defense. Office of the Secretary of Defense, Rand Corporation, National Defense Research Institute (U.S.)
Other Authors: Thaler, David E., Bohandy, S. R.
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Santa Monica, CA : RAND, 2011.
Series:Rand Corporation monograph series ; MG-1052-OSD.
Subjects:
Since 1997
Heads of state > Succession > Iran.
Heads of state > Succession > Iran > Forecasting.
POLITICAL SCIENCE > Political Process > General.
POLITICAL SCIENCE > International Relations > General.
Politics and government > Forecasting
Heads of state > Succession
Politics and government
Iran > Politics and government > 1997-
Iran > Politics and government > Forecasting.
Iran
Online Access:Click for online access
Table of Contents:
  • Preface
  • Figures
  • Summary
  • Acknowledgments
  • Abbreviations
  • Chapter 1. Introduction
  • The Official Procedure for Selecting Iran's Supreme Leader Is Laid Out in the Iranian Constitution
  • In Actuality, the Next Succession Is Likely to Occur in a Much Different Way
  • The Factional Balance of Power
  • The Prevailing View of Velayat-e Faghih
  • Khamenei's Personal Network
  • Other Potential Factors Are Not as Relevant if the Succession Happens in the Near Term
  • The Trajectory of the Next Succession Will Hinge on How the Three Principal Factors Are Configured at the Time of Khamenei's Departure
  • Methodology
  • Roadmap of the Report
  • Chapter 2. Factor 1: The Factional Balance of Power
  • The Factional Landscape in Iran
  • The Islamist Right
  • The Islamist Left (Reformists)
  • Since the Islamic Revolution, Factionalism Has Been More Influential Than Constitutional Process in Decisionmaking and Policymaking Within the Iranian Political System
  • Khomeini Was Able to Keep Factional Jockeying Largely in Check
  • Since Khamenei Came to Power in 1989, Factional Competition Has Grown Markedly in Both Intensity and Influence
  • Chapter 3. Factor 2: The Prevailing View of Velayat-e Faghih
  • The Absolute View of Velayat-e Faghih
  • The Democratic View of Velayat-e Faghih
  • The Quietist View of Velayat-e Faghih
  • Since Each Faction Has a Different View of Velayat-e Faghih, Whichever Dominates Iran's Political Landscape Will Play a Decisive Role in Shaping Succession
  • Chapter 4. Factor 3: Khamenei's Personal Network
  • The Members of Khamenei's Personal Network
  • The Supreme Leader Has Historically Maintained a Personal Network Instrumental in Making Key Political Decisions
  • Khomeini's Personal Network Was the Main Driver of the 1989 Succession
  • Since the Mid-1990s, Khamenei and His Personal Network Have Steadily Consolidated Authority and Are Now the Principal Decisionmakers in Iranian Politics
  • Chapter 5. Five Scenarios for Succession of the Supreme Leader in the Near Term
  • Indicators That Suggest How Factional Competition Is Evolving
  • Indicators That Point to the Prevailing View of Velayat-e Faghih
  • Indicators That Signal How Khamenei's Personal Network Is Developing and the Power It Holds
  • The Configuration of the Three Factors as of 2011
  • Five Possible Scenarios for Succession of the Current Supreme Leader
  • Status Quo: The Supreme Leader Remains Powerful But Not Omnipotent
  • Absolutist: The Supreme Leader, a Dictator, Discards Elected Institutions
  • Democratic: An Iranian-Stylized Islamic Democracy
  • Leadership Council: An Executive Body Beholden to Qom
  • Abolition: Demise of the Islamic Republic
  • The "Wild Card" Factor: The Nature and Timing of Khamenei's Exit
  • The Status Quo and Absolutist Scenarios Seem the Most Likely for the Next Succession
  • Chapter 6. Succession of the Supreme Leader in the Longer Term
  • The Longer-Term Effects of the 2009 Election
  • The Configuration of the Three Factors Will Change
  • Other Factors Will Also Influence Succession in the Longer Term
  • The "Old Guard" Will Disappear and Be Replaced
  • Domestic Issues Will Inevitably Evolve, Putting Pressure on the Nezam to Adapt
  • Iran's Relationship with the United States Will Play a Role
  • Chapter 7. Concluding Remarks
  • Bibliography.
  • Introduction
  • Factor 1: the factional balance of power
  • Factor 2: the prevailing view of velayat-e faghih
  • Factor 3: Khamenei's personal network
  • Five scenarios for succession of the Supreme Leader in the near term
  • Succession of the Supreme Leader in the longer term
  • Concluding remarks.
  • Introduction
  • The factional balance of power
  • The prevailing view of Velayat-e Faghih
  • Khamenei's personal network
  • Five scenarios for succession of the supreme leader in the near term
  • Succession of the supreme leader in the longer term
  • Concluding remarks.

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