Measures of fiscal risk in hydrocarbon-exporting countries

Measures of fiscal risk in hydrocarbon-exporting countries / Carlos Caceres and Leandro Medina.

"The recent relatively high levels of global oil prices have led to a significant improvement in the public finances of several hydrocarbon-exporting countries. However, despite the increase in fiscal buffers, medium-term risks remain high. Fiscal vulnerabilities have increased as a consequence...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Cáceres, Carlos (Author), Medina, Leandro, 1978- (Author)
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, ©2012.
Series:IMF working paper ; WP/12/260.
Subjects:
Petroleum products > Prices.
Finance, Public > Middle East.
Finance, Public > Africa, North.
BUSINESS & ECONOMICS > Industries > General.
Finance, Public
Petroleum products > Prices
North Africa
Middle East
Online Access:Click for online access
Table of Contents:
  • Cover; Abstract; Contents; I. Introduction; Figures; 1. Real Break-Even Prices in Selected Middle East and North African Countries; II. Data and Empirical Methodology; 2. Real Brent Oil Price; III. Main Results and Discussion; 3. Probability that Brent Oil Prices Fall below the Break-Even Price (measure I); 4. Probability that Brent Oil Prices Fall below the Break-Even Price (measure II); IV. Conclusion; Annex I: Summary Tables; Tables; 1. Projected Nominal Break-Even Prices in Selected MENA Oil-Exporting Countries; 2. Projected Real Break-Even Prices in Selected MENA Oil-Exporting Countries.
  • 3. Probability that Brent Oil Prices Fall below the Break-Even Price (measure I)4. Probability that Brent Oil Prices Fall below the Break-Even Price (measure II); Annex II: Modeling Oil Prices Using Geometric Brownian Motion; Annex III: Stochastic Simulations; 5. Historic and Simulated Real Price of Brent Oil (in logarithm); References.

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