Long-run and short-run determinants of sovereign bond yields in advanced economies / Tigran Poghosyan.

"We analyze determinants of sovereign bond yields in 22 advanced economies over the 1980-2010 period using panel cointegration techniques. The application of cointegration methodology allows distinguishing between long-run (debt-to-GDP ratio, potential growth) and short-run (inflation, short-te...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Poghosyan, Tigran (Author)
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, ©2012.
Series:IMF working paper ; WP/12/271.
Subjects:
Online Access:Click for online access
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Summary:"We analyze determinants of sovereign bond yields in 22 advanced economies over the 1980-2010 period using panel cointegration techniques. The application of cointegration methodology allows distinguishing between long-run (debt-to-GDP ratio, potential growth) and short-run (inflation, short-term interest rates, etc.) determinants of sovereign borrowing costs. We find that in the long-run, government bond yields increase by about 2 basis points in response to a 1 percentage point increase in government debt-to-GDP ratio and by about 45 basis points in response to a 1 percentage point increase in potential growth rate. In the short-run, sovereign bond yields deviate from the level determined by the long-run fundamentals, but about half of the deviation adjusts in one year. When considering the impact of the global financial crisis on sovereign borrowing costs in euro area countries, the estimations suggest that spreads against Germany in some European periphery countries exceeded the level determined by fundamentals in the aftermath of the crisis, while some North European countries have benefited from 'safe haven' flows"--Abstract
Item Description:Title from PDF title page (IMF Web site, viewed November 26, 2012).
"Fiscal Affairs Department"--Page 2 of pdf
"November 2012"--Page 2 of pdf
Physical Description:1 online resource : color illustrations
Bibliography:Includes bibliographical references (pages 15-16).
ISBN:9781475542790
1475542798
1475543530
9781475543537
1475579799
9781475579796
1283947684
9781283947688
ISSN:2227-8885 ;
Language:English.