Demographic Projection Techniques for Regions and Smaller Areas : a Primer.

Demographic Projection Techniques for Regions and Smaller Areas : a Primer.

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Davis, H. Craig
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Vancouver : UBC Press, 2014.
Subjects:
Population forecasting > Methodology.
Demography > Methodology.
Demography > Methodology
Population forecasting > Methodology
Online Access:Click for online access
Table of Contents:
  • ""Contents""; ""Preface""; ""1 Introduction""; ""The Value of Population Projections""; ""Projections, Forecasts, and Estimates: Definitions""; ""The Basic Demographic Equation""; ""Overview of the Book""; ""2 Mathematical Extrapolation I""; ""The Linear Function""; ""A Numerical Illustration""; ""The Exponential Function""; ""Linear Transformation of the Exponential Function""; ""A Numerical Illustration""; ""Polynomial Functions""; ""Linear Transformation of a Polynomial Function""; ""A Numerical Illustration""; ""The Hyperbolic Function""
  • ""Linear Transformation of the Hyperbolic Function""""A Numerical Example""; ""Summary""; ""3 Mathematical Extrapolation II""; ""The Modified Exponential Function""; ""Linear Transformation of the Modified Exponential Function""; ""A Numerical Illustration""; ""Mathematical Extrapolation: A Review""; ""Choosing among Extrapolations""; ""Measuring the Prediction Error""; ""A Four-Step Projection Procedure""; ""Summary""; ""4 Comparative Methods""; ""Ratio Methods""; ""Constant Share Method""; ""Projected Share Methods""; ""Difference Methods""; ""Constant Difference Method""
  • ""Projected Difference Method""""Choosing among Methods""; ""Summary""; ""5 The Cohort-Survival Population Model""; ""The Basic Cohort Model""; ""A Numerical Illustration""; ""An Algebraic Summary""; ""Mortality""; ""Basic Measures""; ""Projecting Death Rates""; ""Fertility""; ""Basic Measures""; ""Projecting Birth Rates""; ""Summary""; ""6 Migration Models""; ""Basic Concepts""; ""Immigration and Emigration""; ""In-Migration and Out-Migration""; ""Gross and Net Migration""; ""Causes of Migration""; ""Estimating Past Migration""; ""Direct Estimation of Migration""
  • ""Indirect Estimation of Migration""""Projecting Future Migration""; ""Extrapolation of Past Trends""; ""Regression Models""; ""Summary""; ""7 A Final Note""; ""Mathematical Extrapolation""; ""Comparative Methods""; ""The Cohort-Survival Model""; ""Migration Models""; ""Summary""; ""Addendum: Qualities of a Good Demographic Analyst""; ""Appendix A: Linear Regression""; ""Simple Linear Regression""; ""Illustrative Example: Simple Linear Regression""; ""Multiple Linear Regression""; ""Illustrative Example: Multiple Linear Regression""; ""Summary""; ""Appendix B: Logarithms""
  • ""What Is a Logarithm?""""The Three Basic Rules of Logarithms""; ""Logarithms and Linear Transformations""; ""Summary""; ""Notes""; ""Selected Readings""; ""Index""; ""A""; ""B""; ""C""; ""E""; ""F""; ""G""; ""H""; ""I""; ""L""; ""M""; ""N""; ""P""; ""Q""; ""R""; ""S""; ""T""; ""V""

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