| Summary: | Over the past two millennia, one state has tended to lead as the foremost producer of energy and new technology. While it has not been fully recognized, these leads have become increasingly reliant on energy transitions that make new technological innovations relatively inexpensive. Since the edge of the incumbent system leader (the United States) appears to be eroding, the question is what might come next. As carbon-based fuels become scarcer and/or more damaging, new sources of energy will be needed. Renewable energy will be one of those sources, but it remains unclear whether a renewable regime can be constructed to replace the carbon regime and how long such a transition might take. In the absence of a new energy foundation, there is less reason to anticipate a change in systemic leadership in this century. One might also anticipate less likelihood of a successful response to global warming in the absence of global leadership. But these expectations assume that the energy-technology nexus is fundamental to the ascent of a new system leader. Rather than assume such a proposition, it is better to demonstrate its historical evolution since the fall of Rome by examining a sequence of state efforts to overcome the constraints of an agrarian political economy operating within the context of a solar energy regime. The story stretches from first-millennium China through the Italian city-states and Portugal to the Netherlands, Britain, and the United States. Once the historical foundation is laid, we then evaluate current U.S. and Chinese efforts to reform their energy foundations as part of a bid for future systemic leadership.
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