Developments in demographic forecasting

Developments in demographic forecasting / Stefano Mazzuco, Nico Keilman, editors

This open access book presents new developments in the field of demographic forecasting, covering both mortality, fertility and migration. For each component emerging methods to forecast them are presented. Moreover, instruments for forecasting evaluation are provided. Bayesian models, nonparametric...

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Bibliographic Details
Other Authors: Mazzuco, Stefano, Keilman, Nico
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Cham : Springer, 2020.
Series:Springer series on demographic methods and population analysis ; v. 49.
Subjects:
Population forecasting.
Demography > Statistical methods.
Demography > Forecasting > Methodology.
Social research & statistics.
Population & demography.
Social Science > Statistics.
Social Science > Demography.
Demography > Statistical methods
Population forecasting
Online Access:Click for online access
Table of Contents:
  • Introduction / Nico Keilman and Stefano Mazzuco
  • Stochastic Population Forecasting: A Bayesian Approach Based on Evaluation by Experts / Rebecca Graziani
  • Using Expert Elicitation to Build Long-Term Projection Assumptions / Patrice Dion, Nora Galbraith, and Elham Sirag
  • Post-transitional Demography and Convergence: What Can We Learn from Half a Century of World Population Prospects? / Maria Castiglioni, Gianpiero Dalla-Zuanna, and Maria Letizia Tanturri
  • Projecting Proportionate Age-Specific Fertility Rates via Bayesian Skewed Processes / Emanuele Aliverti, Daniele Durante, and Bruno Scarpa
  • A Three-Component Approach to Model and Forecast Age-at-Death Distributions / Ugofilippo Basellini and Carlo Giovanni Camarda
  • Alternative Forecasts of Danish Life Expectancy / Marie-Pier Bergeron-Boucher, Søren Kjærgaard, Marius D. Pascariu, Još Manuel Aburto, Jes︢s-Adrìn Alvarez, Ugofilippo Basellini, Silvia Rizzi, and James W. Vaupel
  • Coherent Mortality Forecasting with Standards: Low Mortality Serves as a Guide / Heather Booth
  • European Mortality Forecasts: Are the Targets Still Moving? / Nico Keilman and Sigve Kristoffersen Bayesian Disaggregated Forecasts: Internal Migration in Iceland /Junni L. Zhang and John Bryant
  • Forecasting Origin-Destination-Age-Sex Migration Flow Tables with Multiplicative Components / James Raymer, Xujing Bai, and Peter W. F. Smith
  • New Approaches to the Conceptualization and Measurement of Age and Ageing /Sergei Scherbov and Warren C. Sanderson.

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